Market Commentary

2nd Quarter 2017 Market Commentary

The death of repeal and replace, the Trump agenda, and stocks

There was no shortage of angst in the investment community that a Donald Trump victory in last year’s election would send shares down sharply, at least in the immediate aftermath of a Trump win.

In reality, just the opposite happened, with stocks surging in the wake of his surprise victory.

The pre-election-day conventional wisdom didn’t pan out.

Instead, investors quickly warmed to the idea that a Republican President and a Republican Congress would quickly enact a pro-business agenda that would fuel economic growth, and by extension, corporate profit growth.

It was an ambitious agenda that included a steep cut in corporate taxes, individual tax cuts, and tax reform, regulatory reform, and new outlays for infrastructure and national defense. (more…)

1st Quarter 2017 Market Commentary

January 2017 Market Commentary

The year in review and what might be ahead

2016 has come and gone. It started out in a very rocky fashion, with comparisons to 2008 that were too numerous to count.

Let’s be clear. As I’ve emphasized in past commentaries, markets don’t always trade in a quiet and orderly fashion. But, just because we run into turbulence doesn’t mean it’s time to retreat into cash. Volatility has been and always will be part of the investment landscape. It’s how we manage and mitigate risk that is critical.

I’ve talked about the hazards of timing the market in the past. So here is another way to look at it. In order to successfully time the market, you have to be right twice–getting out near the top and getting back in somewhere near the bottom.

There isn’t anyone who can accomplish such a feat and do it consistently. (more…)

November 2016 Special Election Market Commentary

I am not talking about the popular 80’s rock anthem by Europe.

By the time many of you read this we will have a new President. The markets will react accordingly based off of these results. My crystal ball is quite cloudy these days so I can’t tell you who will win. I can tell you that as a nation we have survived 56 of these and I anticipate we will survive number 57.

I always caution against watching stocks on a daily basis, because it’s too easy to get caught up in the daily volatility that inevitably will occur. If we go back to last summer’s late August swoon, it might have been tempting to bail when shares were near their bottom and financial reports bordered on hysteria.

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The Pink Elephant and a European Bank


3rd Quarter Market Commentary

October 2016

It is hard to believe that we are entering the 4th quarter of the year.  September has come and gone and we have exited the month following a period of unusual complacency.

Complacency is Wall Street speak for days upon days when the major market indices trade within an unusually narrow range.

LPL Research put out a piece in September pointing out that the S&P 500 range for August was the seventh narrowest since 1928.

One thing that is absolutely certain – periods of sheer boredom for the short-term trading crowd will eventually come to an end. We don’t know when, but it will happen. In this case, a modest bout of volatility returned to the market by mid-September.

Much of it was related to interest rate worries and chatter from various Federal Reserve officials. (more…)

Brexit, Freedom and Your Money

2nd Quarter Market Commentary

July 2016

A European political earthquake that’s felt at home

Like many of you, my family and I had a wonderful time celebrating the Fourth of July holiday weekend. When I was growing up, the Fourth seemed mostly about barbeques, friends, hanging out at the pool, and fireworks.

Through my adult years, however, I’ve come to better appreciate what Independence Day really means. We have a degree of freedom in our nation that few today and even fewer throughout recorded history have enjoyed. And that freedom came (and still comes) at a steep price.

We have the freedom to speak our mind, the freedom of religion, the freedom to assemble, and the freedom to question our government.

In addition, we have the freedom to choose our own leaders – from the local city council to the president of the United States.

Some of us are looking forward to the upcoming election and are excited about the prospect that a woman may lead the greatest nation that has ever graced the face of the Earth. Others may be eager to cast their vote for a political newcomer, hoping to shake things up in Washington. (more…)

1st Quarter 2016 Market Commentary

Unless you have been living under a rock or in a coma and just waking up you have seen the crazy roller coaster that has been the stock market in the first quarter of 2016.

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