Market Commentary

4th Quarter 2017 Market Commentary 

New highs and the fundamentals

The S&P 500 Index finished the quarter at a record high. Notably, the closely followed gauge of 500 large U.S. stocks ran up its quarterly winning streak to eight consecutive quarters (WSJ, MarketWatch data).

It’s done so in the face of three devastating hurricanes—Harvey, Irma and Maria, dysfunction in Washington, unsettling news from North Korea, and gridlock in Washington.

But in many respects, it shouldn’t be all that surprising.

As I’ve wandered through the literary tulips with you, one common theme is a focus on the economic fundamentals. (more…)

Happy Birthday Economic Recovery!

As June came to a close, the current economic recovery and expansion turned eight years old, the third longest since the end of WWII. That’s according to data compiled by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which marked the end of the Great Recession in June 2009.

A quick explanation–the NBER is the arbiter of recessions and expansions for the U.S. economy. It bases its calls on data that includes employment, sales, income, and industrial production. (more…)

The death of repeal and replace, the Trump agenda, and stocks

There was no shortage of angst in the investment community that a Donald Trump victory in last year’s election would send shares down sharply, at least in the immediate aftermath of a Trump win.

In reality, just the opposite happened, with stocks surging in the wake of his surprise victory.

The pre-election-day conventional wisdom didn’t pan out.

Instead, investors quickly warmed to the idea that a Republican President and a Republican Congress would quickly enact a pro-business agenda that would fuel economic growth, and by extension, corporate profit growth.

It was an ambitious agenda that included a steep cut in corporate taxes, individual tax cuts, and tax reform, regulatory reform, and new outlays for infrastructure and national defense. (more…)

January 2017 Market Commentary

The year in review and what might be ahead

2016 has come and gone. It started out in a very rocky fashion, with comparisons to 2008 that were too numerous to count.

Let’s be clear. As I’ve emphasized in past commentaries, markets don’t always trade in a quiet and orderly fashion. But, just because we run into turbulence doesn’t mean it’s time to retreat into cash. Volatility has been and always will be part of the investment landscape. It’s how we manage and mitigate risk that is critical.

I’ve talked about the hazards of timing the market in the past. So here is another way to look at it. In order to successfully time the market, you have to be right twice–getting out near the top and getting back in somewhere near the bottom.

There isn’t anyone who can accomplish such a feat and do it consistently. (more…)